Iceland's volcanic eruption

Outlook: cloudy

Why so little is known about the effects of erupting volcanos on air travel

Apr 19th 2010 From The Economist online

NORTHERN Europeans will not forget the name Eyjafjallajokull in a hurry, even if they may have trouble pronouncing it. Monday April 19th marked a fifth day of jet-free skies over a huge swathe of the continent as a result of the eruption of the Icelandic volcano, which began pumping large quantities of ash into the sky last Wednesday. That fine volcanic ash could pose a risk to jet engines, which have cut out in the past after exposure to similar volcanic material. Many of Europe’s busiest airports remained out of action.
Demonstrating the unpredictability of volcanic eruptions, Britain’s National Air Traffic Service said on Monday afternoon that airspace in Scotland and parts of northern England would reopen on Tuesday morning, and sounded optimistic that the rest of Britain would be cleared for flying later in the day; but later switched to a more cautious tone as a new ash cloud began spreading. Earlier, Norway, Sweden and Finland had allowed a few mainly domestic flights to operate.
The civil-aviation authorities had come under strong pressure from European airlines, several of whom had conducted successful test flights in the supposed danger zone. However, the engines of a Finnish military jet did suffer considerable damage as a result of breathing in the ash.
By late on Monday night there was still no clear answer as to how long the disruption might last. For one thing, the European Aviation Safety Agency says that there is currently no consensus as to what is an acceptable level of ash in the atmosphere. Furthermore, there is no way of telling what concentration of ash the test aircraft were flying through. The best source of information for the moment is a theoretical model of where the cloud might be, taking into account the prevailing wind and other weather conditions. One interesting wrinkle is that studies of natural disasters tend to be paid for by insurance companies. As volcano eruption is deemed to be an uninsurable risk, there are few studies to turn to.
Airlines say they have lost $200m a day—and want compensation
This uncertainty has led the International Air Transport Association to plead on behalf of its members for Europe’s government to rethink policy on shutting airspace. The industry body reckons that its members have been losing $200m a day as a result of the shut-down. On Monday British Airways said that it and other European airlines had asked for cash from the EU in compensation for the losses suffered because of the closure of airspace, citing the bail-out offered to American airlines in the wake of the September 11th 2001 terror attacks. IATA reckons the situation for Europe's airlines is even worse than then.
If the eruption were to worsen again, there are several ways that the damage wrought by the volcano might be mitigated. If meteorologists and vulcanologists developed a dynamic model of the ash cloud’s progress, it might be possible to keep more airports open, and to reroute planes to get passengers moving again. Wind patterns could change at any time and some reckon that they might do so by the end of the week. If the ash cloud were to drift in another direction flights could be sent around or above it. But when it sits over Europe’s biggest airports that is all but impossible. And while there remains any uncertainty, passengers may decide not to make trips in case the temporary respite reverses along with the wind, stranding them far from home.
If a renewed eruption threatened to continue for days or even weeks, the ad hoc efforts to get people home could develop into more permanent solutions for those making essential trips. Madrid’s large airport, so far unaffected by the ash cloud, could handle extra flights with passengers then continuing their journey north by land. Cross-channel ferries and the Eurostar trains that connect London with Brussels, Paris and points beyond are currently full to bursting with short-haul flyers returning home and businessmen who have no alternative but to travel. But these services and Europe’s rail and road networks could provide some with alternative means of getting to their destinations.
Some air freight might take to the road or water—98% of the world’s trade is already carried by ship. And plenty of the world’s container vessels are sitting idly waiting for the world economy to pick up after the recent recession in the rich world. But for some freight, from Formula One racing cars stuck in China after Sunday's Grand Prix there to flowers farmed in Kenya and destined for restaurant tables in London, there is no alternative route.
It might still take weeks for airlines to return to normal
Even if the volcano stopped emitting ash immediately, it might take two or more weeks before airlines could restore their schedules, with planes and crew stuck around the globe along with their passengers. Some fear that they could be in for a long wait. Icelandic volcanic activity has been low for some time. Eyjafjallajokull is particularly prone to producing the fine ash that has caused the current mayhem.
The last big eruption from Eyjafjallajokull, in 1821, belched ash into the atmosphere for over a year. Perhaps even more worrying than that is the risk that the neighbouring Katla volcano might erupt too. Archaeological evidence suggests that when roused it is even more destructive.
So far, aside from airlines and air travelers, the impact has been limited. But as the shutdown continues Europe’s fragile economies will suffer as tourists fail to arrive, meetings are cancelled and businesses with supply chains that rely on air freight nervously watch stocks running down.

http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15939414

*WORDS
Swathe: A swathe of land is a long strip of land.
Ash: Ash is the grey or black powdery substance that is left after something is burnt. You can also refer to this substance as ashes.
Aviation: Aviation is the operation and production of aircraft.
Reckon: If you reckon that something is true, you think that it is true.
Mitigate: To mitigate something means to make it less unpleasant, serious, or painful.
Freight: Freight is the movement of goods by lorries, trains, ships, or aero planes.
Vessel: A vessel is a ship or large boat.
Prone: To be prone to something, usually something bad, means to have a tendency to be affected by it or to do it.
Belch: If someone belches, they make a sudden noise in their throat because air has risen up from their stomach. (내뿜다.)